Australian marketing has quietly become a harvesting operation, spending almost everything to capture demand that already exists and almost nothing to build the demand it will need next year. The evidence against short-termism, from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute in Adelaide and Binet and Field's IPA studies, is some of the most cited in marketing. The cheapest demand is the kind you plant before a buyer is ready.
You cannot harvest a buyer you never planted. By the time they are in the market, the memory that gets you shortlisted is either there or it is not.
The Take: Marketing in this country has quietly turned into a harvesting operation. It spends almost everything capturing demand that already exists and almost nothing creating the demand it will need next year. That wins the quarter and loses the decade.
Why does Australian marketing keep harvesting a field it never planted?
Around 95% of business buyers are not in the market right now, so a budget aimed only at the 5% ready today ignores almost all of the buyers who will purchase later.
Think of demand like a crop. Activation is the harvest. It finds the buyers whose need is ripe right now and brings them in. Brand building is the planting. It puts your name in the memory of people who will not need you for months or years, so that when the need arrives, you are already the answer they reach for. A farmer who only ever harvests, and never sows, eats well for one season and starves the next.
Most Australian marketing budgets are all harvest. Performance channels are measurable, fast and satisfying. You spend a dollar and you can see the click, the lead, the sale. Planting is slower and harder to attribute, so it gets cut first when the numbers tighten. The field keeps getting reaped and never seeded, and the yield quietly falls.
Across the Australian businesses we score at New Rebellion, Brand and Positioning is the dimension owners most often treat as a nice-to-have rather than a growth lever. They can recite their cost per click. Ask what their brand means to a buyer who is not ready yet and the answer gets vague.
The research that says so was built in Adelaide
Here is the part Australian operators should sit with. The most cited body of evidence for building brands ahead of demand comes from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science at the University of South Australia. Its work on the 95-5 rule, led by Professor John Dawes, shows that only about 5% of business buyers are in the market in a given quarter and roughly 20% across a whole year.
The implication is blunt. If you only advertise to buyers who are ready now, you are ignoring the four in five who will buy across the year but are not raising their hand yet. The job is to be the brand they already recognise when they finally do.
Britain's Les Binet and Peter Field reached the same place from a different direction. Their analysis of 996 IPA effectiveness case studies covering 700 brands over three decades produced the 60/40 rule: roughly 60% of budget to long-term brand building and 40% to short-term activation delivers the best long-run results, including stronger pricing power and cheaper sales.
What does short-termism actually cost?
Put the two research traditions in one place and the trade-off is clear.
Activation produces a sharp spike that fades. Brand building produces a slower lift that compounds. Starve the brand to feed the spike and you get a business that pays full freight for every sale, because nothing is doing the quiet work of making buyers prefer you before the pitch.
Roughly 95% of business buyers are out of the market at any moment, which is the entire case for advertising to people who cannot buy from you today
Which Australian businesses get this wrong?
The ones under the most pressure. When margins tighten, brand is the easiest line to cut because its return is not due this month. Trades, local services, professional firms and challenger retailers slash the planting to protect the harvest, then wonder why every lead costs more than it did last year. The answer is that they trained the market to only notice them at the point of sale, where the only lever left is price.
The Australian businesses that hold their nerve on brand are buying something their competitors are selling off: preference that arrives before the buyer does. That is the cheapest demand there is, because you are not paying to create the need, only to be the name attached to it.
What I would do about it
Set the split on purpose. Decide what share of budget builds future demand versus captures current demand, then defend it when the quarter gets tight. Sixty forty is a starting reference, not a law, so calibrate it to your category.
Advertise to people who cannot buy yet. Put your name, your category and your promise in front of the buyers who are months from needing you. Consistency beats cleverness here.
Measure brand, not just clicks. Track whether more people in your market know you, think of you first and tie you to the need. If the only number you watch is this week's cost per lead, you will keep cutting the thing that makes leads cheaper.
Protect the plant in a downturn. A recession is exactly when share is cheapest to win, because rivals have stopped sowing.
How we score this
At New Rebellion, Brand and Positioning is one of six dimensions in our methodology for scoring Australian businesses. The observations here are directional. They come from patterns across the businesses we assess rather than a single controlled study, and small samples inside any one industry carry more caution. You can read the full method at how we score.
Here is my opinion stated plainly. Performance marketing is not the villain. A business that cannot convert demand goes broke. The mistake is spending the whole budget on the harvest and calling it growth while the field goes bare behind you. The research that proves it was written in Adelaide, which means Australian operators have less excuse than anyone. Plant something. See where your brand actually stands with New Rebellion Hub.
Frequently asked questions
What is the 60/40 rule in marketing?
It is Binet and Field's finding that splitting budget roughly 60% to long-term brand building and 40% to short-term activation delivers the best long-run results. Treat it as a reference point to calibrate, not a fixed law.
What is the 95-5 rule?
Research from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute shows that only about 5% of business buyers are in the market in a given quarter. The other 95% will buy later, which is why brand building to out-of-market buyers matters.
Does brand building work for small Australian businesses?
Yes. The mechanism is the same at any size. Being remembered before a buyer is ready means you get shortlisted when they are, which lowers what you pay to win the sale.
How do I know if I am over-invested in activation?
If almost all of your budget chases this month's leads and you cannot say whether brand awareness in your market is rising, you are likely too far into the harvest and starving the plant.