WARC upgraded its 2026 global ad growth forecast to 11.5% and total spend to $1.39 trillion, then flagged that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could put $93.7bn of growth at risk over 18 months. The market is strong but exposed. Australian businesses should plan for volatility, not assume it.
A forecast that comes with a $93.7bn asterisk is not a forecast you build a fixed annual budget on. It is a reason to keep your hand on the throttle.
WARC has done something unusual. It upgraded its global ad growth forecast and warned of a large downside in the same breath. The 2026 outlook is now 11.5% growth, with total ad investment reaching $1.39 trillion. The caveat is the Gulf. A prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could cut as much as $39.6bn from global ad growth in 2026 and put $93.7bn at risk across the next 18 months.
The pain is uneven. Latin America could see growth fall from 12.8% to 3.4% under the most severe scenario. China drops from 7.9% to 5.3%. The US is forecast to stay resilient at 9.5%, propped up by the FIFA World Cup and the midterm elections.
Why it matters
The headline is a strong market. The story underneath is fragility. Energy and shipping costs flow into everything, and when input costs jump, marketing is the budget that gets cut first because it is the one that looks optional under pressure.
Global ad growth WARC says is at risk over 18 months if Gulf disruption persists, against a 2026 forecast of $1.39 trillion in total spend
Australian businesses are not insulated. We import the cost shocks and we import the nervousness. The mistake in a wobbly market is to either freeze or to keep spending blind because the annual plan said so. Both are decisions made without looking.
What to do about it
Budget in scenarios, not a single number. Map what you do if costs spike and revenue softens, before it happens. A plan made calm beats a panic cut made in the moment.
Keep some budget in your back pocket. Committing every dollar upfront removes the option to move when conditions change. Optionality is worth more in a volatile year than a fully deployed plan.
Protect the spend that is clearly working and stress test the spend that is not. A downturn is the moment to find out which channels actually carry their weight. Turn one off and watch. If nothing changes, you found your cut.
Scale when you know, scale back when you do not. Marketing spend is a throttle, not a thermostat you set in January and forget. The clearer your signal, the harder you can push.
The market is growing. It is also exposed. The businesses that come through a volatile year in front are the ones watching their own numbers closely enough to move early, not the ones waiting for the headlines to tell them what already happened.