WPP Media and Dentsu Just Posted Two Different Forecasts for the Australian Ad Market. The Gap Is the Story.
WPP Media has Australia growing 6.5 per cent in 2026 to a $30.7 billion market. Dentsu has the same year growing 4.1 per cent. The 2.4 point gap matters because it sets up two very different planning conversations.
The market entered 2026 with momentum the wrong way. Both forecast houses are betting that turns around.
WPP Media's latest global ad forecast has Australia growing 6.5 per cent in 2026. The market hits AUD 30.7 billion. Dentsu's forecast has the same market growing 4.1 per cent. Both numbers came out within weeks of each other. The gap is 2.4 percentage points.
That is a meaningful gap on a market this size. The difference is roughly AUD 700 million in projected ad spend. Whichever forecast a CFO chooses determines whether marketing budgets get the wind at their backs or the wind in their faces next year.
The recent SMI data does not settle it. Australian total ad spend contracted 5.2 per cent year on year in February 2026. Q4 2025 was soft, with October down 14.7 per cent. The market entered 2026 with momentum the wrong way.
But beneath the headline, the channel split is doing the heavy lifting. Print newspaper advertising rose 17.4 per cent year on year in February and gained share in a shrinking pool. Search is forecast to grow 9.1 per cent in 2026. Out-of-home is up 6.2 per cent. Retail media is the fastest-growing channel, up 28.1 per cent in 2025 and a further 24.4 per cent in 2026. Linear TV is down 5.1 per cent.
WPP Media's projection for the Australian advertising market in 2026. The number Dentsu disagrees with by AUD 700M.
Why it matters
Forecast splits at this scale tell you the consensus is breaking down. The bullish read, WPP Media's, leans on search, retail media and out-of-home pulling the market upward. The bearish read, Dentsu's, leans on linear TV decline and a weaker macro picture for consumer spending.
For Australian marketers, both readings are right about something. Retail media is taking share. Linear is leaking share. Search is growing because AI-led ad formats are pulling new budget. The question is whether the growth channels grow fast enough to outweigh the decline channels.
The CFO conversation is the one that matters. A 6.5 per cent growth forecast supports a budget increase request. A 4.1 per cent forecast supports a flat budget defence. Both are defensible. Both come with a different set of assumptions baked in.
What to do about it
Build your 2027 budget plan against both forecasts. Run a high-case and low-case scenario. If your numbers only work in the WPP world, you have a fragility problem.
Re-check your channel mix against the channel forecasts. If you are still over-indexed on linear TV, your 2026 efficiency will be dragged down by the channel decline.
Pull your share of retail media spend forward. The channel is growing too fast to ignore. The Australian retail media networks worth testing are Cartology, Coles 360, eBay Advertising and Amazon AU.
Defend your search budget at the CFO meeting. Search ad inflation is real. The 9.1 per cent forecast growth means you need more dollars to hold the same impression share.
Watch the May SMI release. That data point will tell you whether February's softness was a blip or the start of a trend. If two consecutive months print down, the Dentsu forecast is the right one to plan against.
Two forecasts. One market. The right planning answer is to model both and let the next quarter of data decide.