GroupM forecasts Australian advertising spend will reach $30.7 billion in 2026, a 6.5% increase. Pure-play internet captures 75.9% of total spend. Retail media is the fastest-growing channel at 24.4% growth.
Retail media will overtake TV in 2027. The fastest-growing ad channel in Australia is owned by the retailers, not the broadcasters.
Australian advertising spend is forecast to hit $30.7 billion in 2026, according to GroupM's This Year Next Year report. That is a 6.5% increase on the prior year and confirms that the market has moved well past the post-pandemic correction.
The headline number matters less than where the money is flowing.
Of total Australian ad spend now goes to pure-play internet channels
Three out of every four advertising dollars in Australia now go to digital channels. That is not a trend. It is the baseline.
Why it matters
Retail media is the standout growth story, up 24.4% year on year. GroupM projects retail media will overtake linear television spending in Australia by 2027. Woolworths Cartology, Coles 360 and Amazon Ads are building the infrastructure. Brands are following the data.
The shift has structural implications. Retail media budgets often come from trade and shopper marketing allocations, not traditional media budgets. That means the $30.7 billion figure understates the total competitive pressure on attention. Money that never showed up in media forecasts is now buying impressions in the same auctions.
Linear TV continues to decline but slower than the doomsayers predicted. Connected TV is growing fast enough to partially offset the linear loss, though the measurement fragmentation remains a real problem for buyers.
Search and social remain the volume leaders. Google and Meta together still account for the majority of digital spend, but their combined share is shrinking incrementally as retail media, CTV and emerging platforms take marginal dollars.
What to do about it
For marketers allocating budgets in the second half of 2026, the data points to three moves.
First, if you sell through retail and are not running retail media, you are leaving measurable incremental revenue on the table. The attribution is closed-loop. The CPCs are still reasonable relative to search.
Second, revisit your channel mix assumptions. A 75.9% digital allocation at the market level means your competitors are almost certainly shifting spend. If your mix is still anchored to a 60/40 split, you are likely over-indexed on channels with declining reach.
Third, watch the CTV buildout. The measurement is not there yet, but the audience migration is real. Early movers on CTV in Australia are getting reach at CPMs well below linear broadcast. That window will close as inventory tightens.