The data is in, and it is not good for publishers. A randomised field experiment conducted by researchers at the Indian School of Business and Carnegie Mellon University found that Google's AI Overviews reduce organic clicks by 38% on queries where they appear.
This is not a correlation study or a sample of Search Console data. It is the first randomised field experiment to test how AI Overviews affect real user behaviour in a real browsing environment. The study ran for two weeks per participant between January and February 2026, comparing click behaviour between users who saw AI Overviews and those who did not.
The findings align with, and sharpen, earlier observational data. Seer Interactive's study across 3,100 queries and 42 organisations found organic CTR dropped from 1.76% to 0.61% when AI Overviews appeared. Pew Research found users click 8% of the time with AI Overviews versus 15% without.
The reduction in organic clicks when AI Overviews appear, confirmed by randomised field experiment
But there is a nuance worth noting. Data from early 2026 shows a partial recovery: organic CTR on AI Overview queries rebounded from 1.3% in December 2025 to 2.4% in February 2026. Whether that recovery holds or reverses as AI Overviews expand to more query types remains to be seen.
The broader zero-click picture is even starker. Zero-click searches rose from 54% to 72% when AI Overviews were shown. In Google's AI Mode (the conversational search experience), 93% of queries end without a click. That number is extreme, but AI Mode is still a separate product, not yet the default search experience.
Why it matters
For Australian businesses that depend on organic search traffic, this study puts a number on what many have felt in their analytics. Informational queries are being answered directly in the search results. The traffic that used to flow to your website is being intercepted.
The strategic implication is clear: organic search is becoming a brand awareness channel rather than a traffic acquisition channel for informational content. The clicks that remain are concentrating on commercial and transactional queries where users need to take action beyond reading.
There is one bright spot. Sites cited in AI Overviews see a 35% increase in clicks compared to non-cited top-10 results. Getting cited is the new ranking.
What to do about it
Audit your organic traffic by query type. Separate informational queries from commercial and transactional ones. The informational segment is where losses are concentrated.
Shift content strategy toward commercial intent. Buying guides, comparison pages and pricing content still drive clicks because users need to act.
Build structured content that gets cited in AI Overviews. Concise, factual, well-sourced content with clear entity signals performs best.
Invest in brand search volume. Branded queries are largely immune to AI Overview interception. Content, PR and social that build brand recognition pay dividends in search.
Diversify traffic sources. Email lists, direct traffic and social referrals are not subject to Google's AI intermediation.
The 38% figure is the first rigorous measurement. It will not be the last.
