Retail media is Australia's fastest-growing ad channel, forecast to hit A$2.3 billion in 2026 and overtake TV by 2028. Filip Ivankovic argues that chasing a channel because it tops the growth charts is a herd, not a strategy. Most businesses piling in have not fixed the fundamentals that make any channel work, and the networks selling retail media are the ones grading their own homework on what it delivered.
Adding retail media to a business that cannot see its own numbers is not a strategy. It is a hope.
The Take: Retail media topping the growth charts is a reason to be cautious, not a reason to buy in. Most businesses piling into a fast-growing channel have not fixed the conversion basics that make any channel pay off, and a crowded channel is a rising-cost channel.
I have spent years on both sides of this table. Client side, where the numbers had to justify the spend. Agency side, where the incentive is to sell the shiny new thing because the shiny new thing carries the margin. So when every retailer in the country stands up a media network and every business owner scrambles to buy into it, the pattern is familiar. It is not strategy. It is a herd.
Why is retail media growing so fast in Australia?
Retail media in Australia is forecast to hit A$2.3 billion in 2026, up 19.5% and outpacing every other advertising channel. Retailers are turning shopper data into ad networks that sell directly against purchase intent.
Every major Australian retailer with shopper data now runs one. Brand budgets are following the growth curve, not a measured return.
WPP Media has the total Australian ad market hitting A$31.1 billion in 2026, up 7.4%. Retail media is the standout inside that, forecast to reach A$2.3 billion and grow 19.5%, on track to overtake total TV advertising by 2028. Those are real numbers and they are impressive. A growth chart tells you where the money is going. It does not tell you whether the money is working.
Does fastest-growing mean it is the right channel for my business?
No. A fast-growing channel is a crowded channel, and a crowded channel is a rising-cost channel. Every dollar that floods in bids up the price of the next dollar, so joining late means paying a premium that early buyers did not.
Let that sit for a second. The fact that a channel is topping the growth charts is a reason to be careful, not a reason to pile in.
Methodology: Conversion Efficiency figure drawn from New Rebellion's benchmark dataset of 731 scored Australian businesses, scored as at July 2026. Directional, not a national census. Full method at How We Score.
Retail media's forecast growth rate in Australia in 2026, on track to overtake total TV advertising spend by 2028 (WPP Media)
What is wrong with buying a fast-growing channel to fix a weak business?
It adds spend on top of a conversion problem instead of fixing the conversion problem, so the same leak just costs more per visitor.
Most businesses piling into retail media have not fixed the fundamentals that make any channel work. Across the 731 Australian businesses we have scored, close to 4 in 10 sit below 60 out of 100 on Conversion Efficiency, the dimension covering page speed, checkout friction and how well a site turns a visitor into a customer. A channel does not fix that. It just sends more people at the same leak.
Here is what should give a business pause. If a business cannot see what its own website does with a thousand visitors, it cannot see what a retail media campaign does with them either. That is a more expensive channel being bought blind. The waste does not shrink. It grows faster, because the channel is dearer.
When does retail media actually make commercial sense?
When it makes volume or makes margin for the specific business. It also has to satisfy a regulatory requirement where relevant, and the buyer needs to measure the return independently of the network selling it.
Every channel only moves in certain directions. Search catches demand that already exists. Social builds demand. Retail media sits right at the point of purchase, next to the trigger, which is genuinely powerful for the right product. It is one piece on the board, not the whole game.
A grocery brand fighting for placement in a major supermarket chain has a real case. Retail media puts the ad next to the buy button for a shopper already reaching for that category. A B2B software business bidding on the same channel because the growth chart looked good is buying a piece that cannot reach the square it needs.
The louder the growth story gets, the more advertisers show up chasing the same shelf space. The more that happens, the more each impression costs. A business that buys in today because the chart looks good is very often buying at the top of that curve, not the start of it.
What should a business do before buying into retail media?
Do not start with the channel. Start with the numbers. Confirm revenue, spend and the margin on the specific products about to be promoted. If any of those are unclear, fixing the site and the tracking is the next move, not the new channel.
Then run the test. If retail media makes volume, margin or keeps a regulator satisfied for the specific business, buy it deliberately, with independent measurement wrapped around it rather than relying on the network's own scorecard. Track it against a channel that was turned off for the same period. Either result teaches something.
Keep a portion of budget in reserve rather than betting it all on the channel currently topping the headlines.
FAQ
Is retail media worth it for small Australian businesses?
It depends on the product and the buying moment. Retail media works best when a business is fighting for shelf placement at the point of purchase, such as grocery or FMCG. It is a weaker fit for considered B2B purchases where the buying decision does not happen at the shelf.
How big is the retail media market in Australia in 2026?
WPP Media forecasts Australian retail media spend at A$2.3 billion in 2026, growing 19.5%, within a total Australian ad market of A$31.1 billion. Retail media is on track to overtake total TV advertising spend by 2028.
Why shouldn't I trust a retailer's own reporting on my retail media campaign?
Because the retailer selling the ad placement and the retailer reporting on its performance are the same party. That is an inherent conflict, not a claim about any specific network's honesty. Independent measurement against a control period is the only reliable check.
Should I fix my website before spending on new ad channels?
Generally yes. Across the Australian businesses we have scored, more than a third sit below 60 out of 100 on Conversion Efficiency. A new channel sends more traffic at a leak that already exists rather than fixing it, which makes the leak more expensive, not less.
The close
Retail media will keep growing. It will pass TV advertising, the money will keep flowing in and the case studies will keep landing in inboxes. None of that is a reason for a specific business to be in it. The reason to be in a channel is that it fits the business, the customer and the numbers behind it, not that it topped a growth chart this year.
Want to know whether your fundamentals can actually support a new channel before you buy one? Start with NR Studio and see where the leak actually is.