eMarketer forecasts Meta will book US$243.46 billion in net ad revenue in 2026, edging past Google's US$239.54 billion for the first time ever. The bigger story is the growth gap, Meta at 24.1% against Google at 11.9%.
Google did not lose. Meta just built a machine more businesses were willing to hand the keys to.
For the first time, Meta is set to take more advertising money than Google. eMarketer forecasts Meta will book US$243.46 billion in net ad revenue in 2026, just ahead of Google's US$239.54 billion. That is a line nobody crossed before.
The gap in growth is the real story. Meta is growing at 24.1% this year. Google is growing at 11.9%. One is accelerating, the other is holding. Meta's share of worldwide ad spend ticks up to 26.8%, Google's sits at 26.4%.
What is driving it. Advertisers leaning hard into Meta's Advantage+ automation, which packages targeting, creative and bidding into a system most businesses now let run on autopilot.
Why it matters
For years the default split was Google first, everyone else after. That logic is breaking. If you still anchor every plan to search because that is how it has always been done, you are budgeting for a market that no longer exists. Australian businesses pour the bulk of their performance spend into these two platforms, so a shift in who leads is a shift in where your money should be tested, not assumed.
eMarketer's 2026 forecast for Meta's net ad revenue, edging past Google's US$240bn for the first time ever
The deeper point is concentration. Two companies still control more than half of global ad spend between them. Whichever one leads, you are renting an audience from a landlord who sets the rent.
What to do about it
The two giants will keep trading the lead. Your job is to stop guessing which one matters and let your own numbers tell you where the money works.