Australian consumer confidence is stuck near lockdown-era lows, and the reflex to cut brand spend and chase reach is the wrong move. In a cautious market, trust and relevance sell where volume does not, and the research shows shoppers trust influencers and unlabelled AI content least.
The Take: Australian consumer confidence is stuck near levels last seen in the lockdowns, and the standard response of cutting brand spend to chase reach is the wrong one. When people are this cautious, what moves them is trust and relevance, not volume. Loud does not sell to a nervous wallet. It just annoys it.
The reading: New research covered by Mumbrella puts consumer confidence at levels last recorded during the Covid lockdowns, a real drag on discretionary spending. The macro agrees. ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence tracked around the low 70s through mid-2026, historically weak on a series that runs back to 1973.
The demand side: A nervous consumer does not stop buying. They get pickier about who they trust with the money. That is the part the reach reflex misses. Cutting brand and buying cheaper impressions puts you in front of more people at the exact moment more people are screening you out. Discretionary categories feel this first, because a wary shopper defers the nice-to-have long before the essential.
The trust gap: The same research found Australians name influencers their least trusted source when researching a purchase, with 43% putting them at the bottom. Nearly nine in ten want AI-generated content clearly labelled. A cautious buyer is a suspicious buyer. Money poured into borrowed hype or unlabelled AI content is spending straight into what they already distrust. The brands winning this stretch are the ones making it easy to believe them, not easy to reach them.
Share of Australians who name influencers their least trusted source when researching a purchase
For Australian operators: Hold the brand line when the reflex is to cut it. Move budget from reach for its own sake toward proof: clear pricing, real reviews, named people, work that is obviously human. Test relevance against a small holdout before you scale anything into a soft market, and read it on sales and margin rather than reach. Keep spending on the assets that compound: your own audience, your reviews, your reputation for straight dealing. The discretionary categories will recover, so the brands still showing up with trust intact are the ones that win that recovery.