After two years of rapid growth, Australian retail media is being told to prove it works. Brands now want incrementality, not reach. Retailers are being pushed to integrate data and structure teams as margin becomes the metric that counts.
Reach was the pitch. Incrementality is the bill. Brands are finally asking whether the spend made sales that would not have happened anyway.
Australia's retail media boom is heading into a reckoning. After two years of rapid growth, the industry is being told to prove it actually works, with margin and incrementality replacing reach as the metric that counts.
Retail media has grown into a A$2 billion plus channel here and is tracking toward roughly A$2.5 billion to A$2.8 billion in 2026 on current forecasts. Woolworths' Cartology and Coles 360 lead the market, with Bunnings, Kmart and Myer expanding their own networks. At Power Retail's 2026 Retail Media Summit in Sydney, the message was that the easy growth is over. Brands are now demanding proof of incrementality, and retailers are being pushed to structure teams and integrate data rather than just sell inventory.
Why it matters
Retail media has been an easy line item to grow because it sits close to the transaction and looks accountable. Looking accountable and being accountable are different things. If a brand cannot show that retail media drove sales it would not have made otherwise, it is paying a tax to the retailer, not buying growth. For Australian brands this is the year to stress test that spend.
Retail media is now a A$2 billion plus channel in Australia, on track to pass total TV ad revenue by 2027
What to do about it
Demand incrementality testing from your retail media partners. If they cannot measure it, that is your answer.
Separate retail media that drives new demand from spend that just claims credit for sales you already had.
Hold the channel to the same return standard as everything else. Proximity to the till is not proof.
Watch margin, not just revenue attributed. Retail media fees eat into the very sales they claim.
Negotiate. As the category matures, buyers have more leverage than they did a year ago.
If you turned the spend off and nothing changed, you have your answer. Make the channel prove it earns its place.