Expected CTR
Paid MediaAlso: Expected Click Through Rate
Quick definition
Expected CTR is Google's prediction of how likely your ad is to be clicked when it shows for a given search term, compared to other advertisers bidding on the same keyword. It's one of three components that make up Quality Score, alongside ad relevance and landing page experience.
How it varies across Australia
Expected CTR is a relative rating, not a percentage, so there's no universal target to hit. Australian search advertisers with tightly matched keyword-to-ad-copy structures tend to sit at average or above. Broad match campaigns with generic ad copy tend to sit below average more often.
See paid media performance across Australian industries →What it actually means
Expected CTR is Google's guess about whether people will click your ad, based on how your keyword, ad copy and past performance line up against everyone else bidding on the same search term. It shows as one of three ratings in your account, below average, average or above average, alongside ad relevance and landing page experience. Together these three make up Quality Score.
The part people miss is the word relative. Expected CTR doesn't measure your ad in isolation. It measures your ad against the field. A CTR that would be excellent for a broad, low-intent keyword might rate as below average for a keyword where searchers are further along and click almost anything relevant.
This matters for cost per click (CPC) and cost per acquisition (CPA). A higher expected CTR rating typically earns a better ad rank at a lower cost, because Google's auction rewards ads it predicts will perform. A weak rating means you pay more to hold the same position, which drags on return on ad spend (ROAS) even before the click happens.
The fix usually isn't cleverer ad copy. It's tighter keyword-to-ad alignment and smaller, more specific ad groups.
Expected CTR isn't asking if your ad is good. It's asking if your ad is good relative to everyone else fighting for the same click.
How it shows up
Expected CTR shows up in the Google Ads keyword status column as one of three ratings: below average, average or above average. It doesn't display as a percentage or a number you can chart. It shows up indirectly in your cost per click too. Keywords rated below average on expected CTR typically need a higher bid to hold the same ad position as a competitor rated above average, because Google's ad rank formula weights the quality prediction alongside your bid.
The Australian context
Australian search auctions are shallower than US equivalents, fewer advertisers bidding on most keywords outside the most competitive categories like finance and legal. That can make expected CTR ratings swing more on small changes, because the comparison pool is smaller. A single strong competitor entering a niche Australian keyword can shift what counts as average almost overnight.
Where people get this wrong
Related terms
Common questions
Is expected CTR the same as actual click through rate?
No. Actual CTR is the real percentage of impressions that turned into clicks. Expected CTR is Google's forward-looking prediction, shown as a relative rating rather than a number, and it's used to help calculate Quality Score before the ad even runs.
Can I see expected CTR as a percentage?
No. Google only shows it as below average, average or above average in the keyword status column. There's no exposed percentage or numeric score, which is why it's easy to misread as vague when it's simply reported as a rating.
How do I improve a below average expected CTR rating?
Split broad ad groups into tighter, more specific groups. Write ad copy that closely matches the exact search terms in each group. Pause or restructure keywords that don't align with any of your current ad copy.
Does expected CTR affect my cost per click?
Yes, indirectly. It feeds into Quality Score, which feeds into ad rank. A stronger rating typically means a lower cost to hold the same ad position, while a weaker rating means paying more for the same visibility.
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About New Rebellion
New Rebellion is a marketing intelligence consultancy. We build tools, score Australian businesses on how their marketing actually performs, and publish Debrief every day. This dictionary is part of how we work in the open.
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